The heat pump industry is accelerating its breakthrough amid technological innovation and policy support

As the pace of global energy transformation accelerates, heat pumps, as efficient and energy-saving heating/cooling equipment, are facing unprecedented development opportunities. Driven by China's "dual carbon" goals, the European energy crisis generating demand, and the accelerated breakthrough of technological iteration, the heat pump industry presents a new pattern of "accelerated technological upgrading, intensified market differentiation, and deepening global competition".

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1. Technological breakthrough: unlocking new scenarios of extreme cold and intelligence

Ultra-low temperature technological breakthroughs have become a highlight of the industry. At the Hebei Shijiazhuang Heat Pump Exhibition, TICA Environmental released a new product - the Tianyao series of large-frequency R32 low-temperature air source heat pumps, with a single machine cooling and heating capacity of 515KW, a heating season performance coefficient HSPF2.9, and triple patented defrosting technology to completely solve the operation problems in extreme cold environments. Such technological breakthroughs make it possible for heat pumps to operate stably in an environment of -30℃, injecting new impetus into the "coal to electricity" market in the north.

Intelligent transformation is also eye-catching. The proportion of CO2 environmentally friendly refrigerant applications has increased to 15%, and the intelligent Internet of Things technology has achieved a fault self-diagnosis rate of more than 90%. The AI energy efficiency optimization system developed by a certain enterprise reduces operating costs by 15% through big data analysis of user behavior; blockchain technology can achieve accurate carbon footprint tracing and provide data support for carbon trading.

2. Policy dividends: dual-wheel drive of national strategy and local support

The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Heat Pump Industry" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other six departments points out the development direction of the industry. The plan proposes that by 2030, the energy efficiency of key heat pump products will be improved by 20%, and the application area of buildings will continue to grow. The policy clearly requires deepening the application of heat pumps in construction, industry, agriculture and other fields, and promoting the renovation of existing inefficient equipment.

Local supporting policies are also added simultaneously. Tianjin's "Heating Management Measures" standardizes industry standards, and the "coal to electricity" project in the north continues to deepen, driving the share of heat pump heating market to 40%. East China and South China focus on hot water supply and industrial and agricultural applications. The proportion of hot water applications in South China reaches 98%, and the penetration rate in industrial drying, textile shaping and other fields will increase from 12% to 30%.

3. Market explosion: domestic demand upgrade and export expansion go hand in hand

The domestic market has shown explosive growth. In 2024, the market size of China's air source heat pump will reach 42 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year, and it is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2030. The sub-sectors are clearly differentiated: heating accounts for 55%, hot water 30%, and drying 15%. The northern market is mainly heating (accounting for 85%), while the southern market focuses on hot water and industrial and agricultural applications.

The export market is also strong. In 2024, China's heat pump exports accounted for 45% of the world, and the European market accounted for more than 60%. The European "ban on burning" has driven a surge in demand for air source heat pumps, and sales are expected to exceed 3.5 million units in 2025. The cost advantage of Chinese companies has accelerated overseas expansion. Head companies such as Finney Technology have an annual export volume of about 200,000 units, but the shortage of European installation workers has led to localized service needs, forcing companies to upgrade their service models.

4. Field expansion: From construction to multi-scenario penetration

The construction field is still the main battlefield. North China and East China account for more than 60%, but the growth rate of industrial and agricultural applications is significant. In 2024, the industrial heat pump market will reach 8 billion yuan, with a penetration rate of more than 30% for tobacco and grain drying; in the agricultural field, new scenarios such as greenhouse heating and medicinal material drying are explored.

Breakthroughs in emerging fields continue to emerge. The comprehensive energy efficiency of the solar thermal + heat pump system has been increased to 5.0, and energy storage technology solves the problem of peak and valley electricity prices; nano-coating technology improves heat exchange efficiency by 20%, and graphene electrodes extend the life of compressors by 30%. These innovations provide solutions for scenarios such as industrial waste heat recovery and transportation hub heating.

5. Global competition: standard setting and supply chain breakthrough

Chinese heat pump companies are accelerating their international layout. Participating in more than 20 ISO/TC80 international standard setting projects, leading companies such as Haier and Midea have enhanced their international voice through mergers and acquisitions and technology output. However, high-end variable frequency compressors still rely on imports, the localization rate of chips is less than 30%, and the shortcomings of the supply chain need to be broken through.

The EU carbon tariff (CBAM) brings new challenges. Companies need to lay out a zero-carbon supply chain in advance and reduce their carbon footprint through an integrated solution of "solar storage and heat". Some companies are accelerating their penetration into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East by building localized R&D centers, and the market potential of RCEP member countries is gradually being released.